Is ITIL still dead in the water?

Two years ago I asked "Is ITIL dead in the water?". One year ago, itsm_stephen asked me for an update. I did mean to respond, but to my shame I note today I never did. So, Stephen, here it is... a year late.

The thrust of that first post was that ISO20000 would capture the high ground from ITIL. ITIL V3 was "on its way" but was "too little too late". The coup de grace would come if/when someone released a set of guidance similar to ITIL but based on and compliant with ISO20000. Most likely someone with the deep pockets to do it, and I raised the ugly spectre of "MOF/20k".

So how does the landscape look two years on? I stand by my statements in that article.

ISO20000 is finally gaining some traction as contracts start to ask for it in some parts of the world. So I still think "In five [three] years time most organisations will consider ISO/IEC 20000 certification as a normal part of operating: a minimum benchmark".

ITIL V3 is not ISO/IEC 20000-compliant, though closer than I expected. I still think V3 is "too little". You are all thinking "Au contraire! it is a big beast" (or something shorter and more Anglo-Saxon). ITIL V3 is too little in addressing the threat to ITIL from non-compliance with other frameworks, ISO20000 in particular.

With practical experience, the world will come to realise that doing ITIL might help get you to ISO20000 certification but only if you vigorously steer it that way - it doesn't come by default - and the reverse is not true: ISO20000 certification says very little about your ITIL state. it could be ITIL, it could be something else.

The possibility still exists for someone to do "The ISO20000 Red Book" and then it's all over, Rover. IBM and Mickeysoft both remain remote from ITIL. Both have the loot to do it. One April 1st I suggested they had, together! Not a pretty thought.

The IT Swami forsaw one of ITIL's fates being kicked into irrelvance by one of the frameworks that ITIL aloofly ignored. ["aloofly"??? I doubt that is a word, but work with me here]

I believe Castle ITIL (the ITIL "inner circle") will come to regret snubbing ISO20000 in the ITIL V3 process (and COBIT and ASL and ...). They should have produced a compliant correlated document with ongoing compliance baked in. They didn't, and maybe one day someone else will.

[Updated: ITIL's days are numbered. But it is a large number. ITIL isn't going away any time soon. However I hate to see a premature end when the BOK could go on and grow indefinitely.]