On exponential systems

It is hard to extrapolate what is going to happen from any set of data. One thing is for sure: in the real world, any simple model that shows a continuing increase will run into a real physical limit. And if it is an exponentially increasing curve that we are forecasting, that limit is going to come sooner rather than later.

[Note for the mathematically literate: yes we are talking about hyperbolic curves not true exponential ones, but
a) people use the term exponential colloquially
b) exponential curves accelerate so fast they look hyperbolic in the real world: they have a practical asymptote if not a real one. That's the whole point of the "Singularity" nonsense]

Exponential systems

For example, Moore's Law has defied this limiting for decades. If you think that means it will continue to do so for decades more, then don't invest on the stockmarket - you are a danger to yourself.

The only question is when. Oh, and what (is going to limit us).

[update 2013-04-09 See more on extrapolation

See also the safety razor singularity]

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